accurate weather reports?

[meopilite]

Where do you get the most accurate weather reports?

 

[yellowcanoe]

NOAA weather stations. But I tend to use them only for ocean paddling. Lots of my trips have no weather coverage. I do watch the sky years of noticing have taught me much but I can't forecast much past today with that method. Sometimes two days Even meteorologists can't go past 72 hours with complete accuracy

NOAA has a good site for mobile units

 

[snapper]

I hope this doesn't sound obnoxious but I get my most accurate weather forecasts from nature. While never a farmer, I've spent a lot of my life outdoors and if you pay attention you can figure out what's going to happen; at least over the short term. When on a trip I always ask my students, "what's more important...knowing a 5 day forecast or being aware of what's going to happen over the next 24 hours or so?" Thankfully the answer is "the next 24 hours or so." If you watch the clouds, wind, etc., you can usually forecast with remarkable accuracy what will take place over the next day or so. Since that's all that matters when I'm out, that's what I go by.

All that being said, some of it goes right out the window when I'm in a new location. Weather patterns can be very different in various locations so it's best to listen to some weather forecast if you're in a new and unfamiliar area. At least that's what I've discovered. YMMV...

That's all for now. Take care and until next time...be well.

snapper

PS - For what it's worth, I once got sucked into a weather forecasting contest with a student of mine who was a meteorologist. Long story short, his predictions were correct one day out of the five. I nailed the other four. Was it luck? I don't think so. I'm more inclined to believe that my accuracy was from observing the natural signs as they evolved and changed over the course of each day.

 

[ppine]

Snapper is right. Just remember to bring your 8 pound Indian weather rock. NOAA is good. I like one local weather forecaster and Dopler radar.

 

[snapper]

ppine - I'm more of an ultralight paddler so my rock is only 1.5 pounds

Until next time....be well.

snapper

 

[Guest]

Where do you get the most accurate weather reports?

NOAA reports on the weather radio if I’m in an area that receives a station. For areas where a NOAA station is doubtful I bring a small AM/FM/Weather radio and hope to pick up a radio station. And yeah, I watch the clouds and try to be perceptive of changes in wind, temp or humidity and what that portends for fronts coming through.

Beyond the I’m-there-now weather I am especially interested in the forecast for areas where I will be travelling. That was resolved with a Chromebook in the truck and wi-fi connection at a rest area or truck stop along the way.

On the road I can sometimes outrun weather, or at least not run into weather. Or change my route, timing or even destination if I know what I’m getting into beforehand.

Winter roaming up and down the east coast I have spent way more time (and vehicle salt exposure) battling snowy conditions than necessary. That is tough on vehicles, especially that innocuous looking brine pre-storm treatment being sprayed in many places. Pebbles of rock salt flying off the tires into the undercarriage sounds nasty, but that brine is a silent killer.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/local...9294e6-b949-11e4-aa05-1ce812b3fdd2_story.html

All that said, once I’m out there in it I relish the weather, especially if I am ensconced in a taut and secure camp. But my “schedule” is retiree flexible, and I don’t need to drive through crap to get there. If I can linger somewhere for a day instead of driving an 8 or 10 hour shift in a deluge or snow storm, hell yes.

 

[Mihun09]

Normally I would go with the Environment Canada weather site but of course with cuts to the department accuracy is lost, they cannot even get the next day right unless it is a major event.

Out in the bush we have no access to weather reports, we watch the skies mostly. Summer in Manitoba, hot and dry, with extended hot and dry expect night time thunderstorms. We keep looking for one of the old brass barometers to take with, a small one but everything these days is digital and battery powered.

It is Snowing at the moment, which was not forecast.

 

[scoutergriz]

I carry a small radio and use the Environment Canada forecast. It's on 162.400Mhz in Ontario

 

[Seeker]

My most accurate forecast comes from a friend who flies... he's got some site that he gets on (might be NOAA), and he can actually read the maps and tell what's going on and why... pretty interesting to watch him.

For my daily use, I prefer Intellicast's "graph" format... the site defaults to "table" but you can change it. Allows me to figure out that a daily 30% of rain really means 80% at 2PM or whatever, and I can customize the graph to factor in humidity, wind direction, etc.. I'm a hunter, and where I live, March and June/July/August are the only months I can't hunt something, and I don't like being out in June-August here in LA anyway... the forecast is typically "High in the mid 90s, low in the mid 70s, 30% chance of afternoon thunderstorms" during those months. That's why a lot of guys fish then.

When I'm out for more than a few days, some sort of instinct kicks in again, and I can just tell what's going to happen in the next 6, 12, or 24 hours, in a general way, by the wind and humidity mostly. Humidity goes way up and the wind shifts to the south before it rains. Fog in the morning is a good sign. Red sunset usually bodes well. Red sunrise means bring a poncho along that day. Cirrus clouds mean clear, dry weather and cooler temps...

When I lived up North I could tell when it was going to snow too, by the clouds... there's just a low, grey overcast, along with a certain wind and temp that means snow... can't really explain that one. anyone who lives up there can probably do it.

On a related note, I pay WAY more attention to the moon phase, sunrise/set times, and position of various planets when I'm out for more than an overnighter... helps you stay found, I guess...

 

[red langford]

Not sure if it cuts to the forecasting agencies or it was from when I moved, but I can't get a weather forecast that is is right 12 hours out let alone a week. When I lived closer to the centre of the universe (Toronto) it seemed the weather was almost always bang on. One of the news radio stations had a contest that if their forecast was out by 3 degrees they would give away some money that built every day it was right. I think it was over a year before it was out. Now they call for sun and warmth and you wake to snow, calls for 20cm of snow and you wake to sunshine and heat. Calls for a a few flurries you 50cm. Maybe it is because nobody is trying real hard to forecast an area the size of Europe with a population of small Pacific Island, maybe it's cuts to the service, but I know the weather forecast here is not worth the paper it's written on.

 

[Mihun09]

Not sure if it cuts to the forecasting agencies or it was from when I moved, but I can't get a weather forecast that is is right 12 hours out let alone a week. When I lived closer to the centre of the universe (Toronto) it seemed the weather was almost always bang on. One of the news radio stations had a contest that if their forecast was out by 3 degrees they would give away some money that built every day it was right. I think it was over a year before it was out. Now they call for sun and warmth and you wake to snow, calls for 20cm of snow and you wake to sunshine and heat. Calls for a a few flurries you 50cm. Maybe it is because nobody is trying real hard to forecast an area the size of Europe with a population of small Pacific Island, maybe it's cuts to the service, but I know the weather forecast here is not worth the paper it's written on.

The only accurate forecast in Canada now a days is to just look outside.

 

[Odyssey]

I check the forecast before heading out, and try to remember the incoming weather pattern. It's changeable I know. Knowing the rough guestimate forecast and keeping an eye on the sky, we stay flexible with our trip. Grey skies and steady drizzle? Nice travelling weather. Storm front coming in? Hunker down and wait it out. Clearing night sky? Let's get a late start after drying flys and tarps, and going for a nice morning swim.
Thanks for that channel Scoutergriz.

 

[Mars]

NOAA
And NOAA's graph that shows numerous weather factors on a 48hr (only) chart.

So for example this:
Hourly Weather Forecast for 42.47N 75.04W (Elev. 1499 ft)

 

[Guest]

i check NOA before every ADK trip. I have learned to multiply wind speed by 2 or 3. temp is usually right. rain is 75% right.
Turtle

 

[riverstrider]

I like NOAA as well, but I find myself usually using weather underground (wunderground.com). It basically takes the National Weather Service (U.S.) forecast for the area and puts it all in a summary graph that is easy to use. I find it reasonably accurate a few days out...the extended forecast is always questionable. One thing I like is a link to the "scientific forecaster discussion" where the weather is not only forecast, but the meteorologists also explain what they are thinking. It gives me a great feel for how little they really know, and they seem to be pretty good at describing what they are confident in and what they are not.

Out on a trip, I have a NOAA weather radio for the forecasts, and, as others do here, I keep my eye on the clouds and my finger to the wind.

-rs

 

[Mars]

I like Weather underground as well and use it with NOAA which I have found actually necks the accuracy down.

I especially like that locals can add info as its in their backyard which helps to give me a timing of storm movement.