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wind.

Chansta, the charts you linked on windy.com illustrate an important point--mostly, the wind does not blow at a steady velocity. When wind forecasts are given as a single value, eg, 11, the forecast is usually for sustained wind. I have read three different definitions of sustained wind. Generally, it is an average of wind speeds measured over some period of time--I've seen 2, 3 and 10 minutes as the averaging period. Maybe different meteorologists do it differently, or probably my understanding is incomplete (i.e., I'm wrong).

Most wind-related problems occur during the gusts, which can easily be 2 or 3 times the sustained winds. A nice thing about the windy.com charts is they list the expected intensity of gusts.

In my experience, wind over open water is always greater than the values stated in forecasts for locations on land. Also, it always subjectively feels like there is more wind than what is reported in weather observations, but that's just me.

I've paddled when the gusts stop forward progress and push me backwards. That's okay, as long as I still make progress between the gusts. The waves kicked up by the gusts don't suddenly level out after the gusts, and those waves can be funneled and shaped by bottom and land features. My most disastrous wind experience occurred on a gusty day at a windward spot on the Chesapeake (and it wasn't very disastrous). Winds were in the mid teens, with stronger gusts. I progressed into the wind fairly well until I reached a broad sand bar over which the waves were mounding up. The waves were big enough to come into the boat, and the water was so shallow the paddle didn't get much bite. I ended up swamped and had to abandon the trip. My point is you can stand at the put-in and make a judgement to go, but conditions along your route will probably vary from what you see. So, be conservative and have a bail out plan.

I day paddled Lake Moomow a few years ago. It looks like a great spot for paddle-in camping. It's on my list of things to do!
 
here's what wind.com is showing... https://www.windy.com/37.959/-79.966/wind?gfsWaves,swell2,2019-12-31-21,37.962,-79.966,13,m:eIsadVS

vs the other proposed spot: https://www.windy.com/36.816/-80.063/wind?gfsWaves,swell2,2019-12-31-21,36.801,-80.063,13,m:eGwadVI

first one is an hour from me and has national forest/dispersed camping

number two is a pay by night off season spot where I'd basically car camp and paddle around.

Some places are more protected than others...for example rivers are often low points where you may not get hit with full wind speed...or at least not all the time. You can also usually find one shoreline that is more protected than another.

Your second choice looks considerably more calm with sustained winds around half your first location and no gusts over 30. Gusts over 30 are pretty frickin serious especially if you don't have much experience in that kind of wind. Even 25 mph gusts are pretty strong and will force you to focus on dealing with the wind.

Hey sweeper I couldn't see your links.
 
Some places are more protected than others...for example rivers are often low points where you may not get hit with full wind speed...or at least not all the time. You can also usually find one shoreline that is more protected than another.

Your second choice looks considerably more calm with sustained winds around half your first location and no gusts over 30. Gusts over 30 are pretty frickin serious especially if you don't have much experience in that kind of wind. Even 25 mph gusts are pretty strong and will force you to focus on dealing with the wind.

Hey sweeper I couldn't see your links.

Yep. Worst case scenario for lake number 2 is I don't get to paddle much. I'll still get to do off season drive in camping with practically nobody there. Sleep under the stars.
 
And another thing touched on here...on shore, conditions may look ok and waves look benign. Then, once you're out on the water, those little waves you observed from shore are almost at gunwale height and the gusts are huuuge. Just beware that what seem to be minor winds when you are on the shore can be deceiving. This is even more pronounced when your put in is in a calm bay and you can't really see what's happening put there.
 

Yikes. Looks like the birthday card my neighbor's 2 year old made for me.
 
. . . once you're out on the water, those little waves you observed from shore are almost at gunwale height and the gusts are huuuge. .

Related to this: In my serious whitewater days, we coined the phrase "New River phenomenon" to describe how much smaller rapids waves looked when scouted from heights above river level or at a distance. Once you got into the waves they were so much bigger than they looked that you were often knocked off your carefully planned line, and in trouble, right away.
 
My only caveat is that it is cold out there right now. Use an extra layer of caution. Cold water and no one around can go bad really quicly. In the summer, big deal...at the worst you are swimming.

My upper limit for wind is 30km/hr. And that is not a "go" speed, that is a "can I get back" speed.

Let us know how it went and pictures, always pictures.
 
It was windy as all get out. Gusty, even! I tried a short paddle to get some fire wood and the bow abruptly turned immediately. A fool's errand, but a nice camp was has nonetheless. not sure how to post pictures from my phone.
 
It was windy as all get out. Gusty, even! I tried a short paddle to get some fire wood and the bow abruptly turned immediately. A fool's errand, but a nice camp was has nonetheless. not sure how to post pictures from my phone.
You will do fine in the future.. You have a thinking head on those shoulders.
You can use upload attachments tab to directly load from your phone.
 
My only caveat is that it is cold out there right now. Use an extra layer of caution. Cold water and no one around can go bad really quicly. In the summer, big deal...at the worst you are swimming.

Cold water is extra dangerous for sure but we lose paddlers around here in summer too. Today (January 1st) we had our first local paddler death of 2020 (a kayaker) so I'll say that you might want to use "an extra layer of caution" whenever you go paddling. Kudos to you for changing your mind quickly in the high winds you experienced.
 
Cold water is extra dangerous for sure but we lose paddlers around here in summer too. Today (January 1st) we had our first local paddler death of 2020 (a kayaker) so I'll say that you might want to use "an extra layer of caution" whenever you go paddling. Kudos to you for changing your mind quickly in the high winds you experienced.

If the water is extra calm and it's cold, I feel fine sticking to shore in local lakes, but wouldn't mess with a river right now. I'll be tarp camping this weekend instead of paddling. Looks like another blustery day.
 
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